Interest And Inflation
WHAT ARE INTEREST RATES?
Interest and inflation rates are linked and affect our daily lives from the cost of our weekly shop to how much money we can borrow. Interest rates are essentially the amount borrowers are charged for borrowing money. Most banks will show the interest rate as a percentage of the total loan amount. This means that the higher the percentage, the more interest you will pay back over the term of your loan.
If you are not a borrower and you are a saver, then the interest rate will inform you how much money you will accrue in your account. the higher the interest savings rate you have the more money you will be paid into your bank account.
Interest rates vary depending on who you are borrowing from, the amount of your borrowing, the level of risk involved, and the terms of your loan.
If a lender thinks lending you money is high-risk then it is likely they will charge you a higher interest rate. In this way, the economics of a country are impacted by the interest rates.
HOW CHANGES IN THE INTEREST RATE AFFECT US?
One of the most obvious impacts of a changing interest rate is that it affects the amount of interest we are paid (as savers) or pay (as borrowers).
Any time there are changes in interest rates you should examine your savings and lending to see if you will be affected.
For those looking to borrow money, whether that is to buy a house, invest in business, or even just for the purposes of education (such as a student loan), the cost of borrowing will increase when interest rates are raised.
Current economic uncertainty means that businesses, individuals, corporations, and almost everyone in society are impacted.
For homeowners, an increase in interest rates means an increase in repayments (unless the mortgage is based on a fixed rate). Ultimately, this will result in a squeeze on household income and budgets at a time when the UK is dealing with an energy bills crisis and an increase in fuel costs.
To summarize the main effects of rising interest rates:
- increase in mortgage repayments
- increase in the cost of borrowing
- reduced consumer and business confidence
- increased incentive to save more to take advantage of the improved interest rates (but this depends on the rate being offered by banks on savings accounts)
- slower economic growth
- possible rise in unemployment
WHAT IS A BANK RATE?
A bank rate is set by the Bank of England. Arguably, it is the most crucial interest rate and is also sometimes known as the base rate.
The base rate is controlled by the Bank of England and is the rate paid by the Bank of England to businesses and banks that borrow from it.
The Bank of England is known as the central bank of the United Kingdom. They not only set the bank rate, which is currently 1.25%, but they also undertake the regulation of the banking industry, and financial business services, and they oversee the country's monetary policy. This then goes on to affect the economy including employment, wages, spending, and borrowing.
When banks set an interest rate they consider many factors in addition to the bank rate.
However, if the Bank of England changes the bank rate, then banks will also change their interest rate for both borrowers and savers in the market.
WHAT IS INFLATION?
The word inflation describes rising prices. If prices of goods and services are rising quickly then this is referred to as the rate of inflation.
Currently, in the United Kingdom the rate of inflation is 9.4%.
The rate of inflation is worked out by comparing the cost of products today and comparing the price against what the same products cost a year ago. The Office for National Statistics is the organization that is responsible for checking the price of goods and services.
If the price of production, imports, and raw materials increases then it is very likely that the rate of inflation will also increase. In addition, any increase in demand from consumers also causes the inflation rate to increase.
This is what is currently happening in the UK with the cost of living crisis.
WHAT CAUSES INFLATION?
As mentioned above, inflation is caused by various factors. The main drivers of inflation rates going up are the increased cost of production, and increases in raw materials and wages.
If inflation rates begin to increase it means that the cost of basic necessities including food and household items also rises. This can adversely affect society as many people will struggle to afford the basics and fall into debt. Inflation rates could also affect employment rates as employers also face cuts to their budgets and increased costs of operating.
Inflation does not only affect the basic necessities such as food. As we have seen recently in the UK, inflation also affects utilities, fuel costs, clothing, luxury goods, and cars.
Some of the main factors causing the rising prices in the UK, and thereby affecting the rate of inflation, include the following:
- increase in energy bills
- high fuel prices
- the war in Ukraine
- the rising cost of car prices (according to the Office for National Statistics)
- increased costs of household goods and furniture
- increased costs of food
- higher interest rates impacting homeowners
Whilst the cost of goods is rising, the wage increases are not rising in line with the cost of living.
HOW ARE INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION CONNECTED?
Theoretically, interest rates and inflation rates have what is considered to be an inverse relationship. This means that when interest rates are low, inflation is expected to rise, and when interest rates are high inflation rates should go down.
When interest rates are lower, the borrowing power of consumers is increased.
If consumers are spending but the prices of goods are going up faster than wages are increasing, then inflation rates increase. In order to encourage borrowers to borrow less and encourage them to save more the Bank of England increased the interest rate.
The aim is to slow the economy down enough to decrease inflation.
WHY HAVE INTEREST RATES GONE UP?
The Bank of England has increased interest rates so that it can reduce the rate of inflation. If the rate of inflation continues to go up in the UK then this can have many negative effects on UK residents. Currently, the inflation rate in the UK is at a 40 year high.
For example, people will have to pay more and more for goods and services. Property could lose some of its value, and fuel prices could continue to rise.
If inflation rises too high then this is called hyperinflation. This can result in a full economic collapse and devalue the currency.
WHY DID THE BANK OF ENGLAND RAISE INTEREST RATES?
The general view is that if the Bank of England raises interest rates they want people to spend less money.
When interest rates increase the Bank of England hopes that people begin to spend less and save more.
The Role Of The Bank Of England In The Economy
The Bank of England was established in 1694 as a private bank that lent the UK government money.
In 1997, the Bank of England was granted independence so that it could set the interest rates without any form of political affiliation.
The Bank of England is not connected to the Chancellor of the Exchequer as it it is important for it to base its interest rates on economic factors rather than political ones.
Not only does the Bank of England set the base rate, but they also:
- forecast the inflation rates
- issue coins and bank notes
- act as a lender of last resort for UK banks
The Current State Of The Uk Economy
According to PWC, the UK economy was recovering well from the global pandemic.
Unemployment rates were low and the labour market and service industry was recovering well.
However, the war in Ukraine was a shock to the UK economy (and economics globally), impacting it in many different ways including:
- disrupting supplies and services for all industries including retail and construction,
- leading to higher commodity prices and less revenue for businesses
- lower trade levels
- less investment flow
News agencies and websites are reporting that the UK growth outlook for the next 12 months does not look promising.
KPMG has agreed with this analysis stating that the GDP growth this year will halve and slow further in 2023 (UK Economic Outlook Report, KPMG, 2022).
According to KPMG, they predict further interest rate increases from the Bank of England. This is based on data from economic forecasts, consumer spending, interest rates, and the unemployment rates.
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN OTHER COUNTRIES?
Many other countries around the world are dealing with similar problems that the UK economy is dealing with.
According to the Office for National Statistics, the European Union is facing similar rates of inflation as the UK.
The United States is reporting inflation levels of 9.1%.
DO INTEREST RATE AND INFLATION RISES AFFECT INVESTOR BEHAVIOR?
The basic answer to this question is yes. Interest rates and inflation rates affect investor behavior. In fact, changes in inflation and interest rates affect everyone.
What it means in real terms is that any money you have saved could be worth less today than it was yesterday. High inflation rates impact the purchasing power and confidence of consumers and their spending.
Inflation rates and interest rates affect investment portfolios. If investors are finding it more expensive to borrow funds to invest then it is very likely that investments overall will reduce.
Investor Risk
Investors aim to increase their wealth and minimize their risk and tax liabilities. In an economy where interest rates and inflation are rising, there is normally an impact on portfolios and investments.
Rising inflation not only affects stocks and bonds it also affects property prices. Of course, all investment comes with a risk of losses.
Any investor with inflation-indexed assets or liabilities needs to be particularly aware of the changes in their portfolio.
Also, as interest rates rise this affects borrowing. As borrowing becomes more expensive, this leads to investors having less money available to invest.
Rises in interest rates also affect the stock market and the impact of the rise is usually felt quicker than in the general economy.
Normally, when interest rates fluctuate investors should expect the market rate of their bonds to also fluctuate. However, not all bonds are equally affected. Bonds that have short maturities may not be as impacted as bonds with longer maturities.
For investors who have a long-term outlook and planning when it comes to their portfolio, short-term changes to the interest rate should not significantly impact them.
For an investor who is looking at the long-term goal and who has a mix of assets, the long-term outlook of their portfolio should be fine.
To summarize, when interest rates increase the impact on investments includes the following:
- a rise in mortgage rates
- affect on the price of commodities
- Fall in bond prices
- Potential losses in the stock market
- fluctuations in real estate values
- increases competition between banks
Interest Rates And Islamic Finance Customers
For many borrowers, any increase in interest rates will affect how much they pay back to the bank they have borrowed from. The exception to this is those with fixed rate loans or mortgages. As the interest rate on these loans has effectively been 'fixed' for a specific period, then interest hikes or drops will not affect the repayments. Make sure to check when your fixed rate period comes to an end so you can plan accordingly.
In theory, for customers of banks who want Islamic Finance and Sharia compliant services, changes in the interest rate should not adversely affect borrowers or savers. This is because banking services based on Islamic Finance principles do not rely on interest or include any form of interest payment.
Conceptually, Islamic banking customers are not motivated by profits or gains. Therefore, changes to the interest rate should not affect them.
However, on a wider scale, any changes to the interest rates and inflation will affect all lending institutions in some way. Many Islamic Finance lenders use the base rate of the country to benchmark their repayment calculations. This means any increase to the base rate could affect the repayments for customers of Islamic finance products.
However, for economies where the interest and inflation rates and subject to fluctuation, this could lead to more people being interested in the interest-free products offered by financial institutions that offer Sharia compliant services. A research study in Malaysia found that any increase in base rates increased consumer interest in Islamic mortgages.
Ultimately, how you are affected by increased interest rates and inflation rates depends entirely on your financial circumstances and the management of your investment portfolio.
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WHAT IS AN ISA?
An ISA is an individual savings account. The aim of an ISA is to encourage people to save money and invest in what is considered to be a tax-efficient way.
Having first launched in the United Kingdom in 1999, ISAs have become a popular way to prepare for your future by making sure you have savings set aside.
Anyone over the age of 18 in the UK can apply to open an ISA, and for anyone under the age of 18 there are options to open a junior ISA account.
The main things to note with ISAs accounts are as follows:
- You can only open one ISA per tax year
- There are limits to how much money you can put into your ISA each year
- The current ISA limit is £20,000
SHARIA-COMPLIANT ISAs
Sharia-compliant ISAs are essentially ISAs that comply with the strict Sharia rules relating to finance and savings. There can be no element of riba or interest as this is not allowed in Islam.
In addition, a halal ISA must ensure that any money generated comes from halal business and investment opportunities. So if you have a stocks and shares ISA you must ensure that the investment fund only invests in Sharia compliant companies and is not involved with industries that are deemed to be haram such as the porn, alcohol, and gambling industry.
The foundation of Islamic finance rules is that money itself has no intrinsic value. It is simply seen as a medium of exchange, therefore it cannot generate money by itself (hence the principle of interest being forbidden).
WHAT ARE THE ISLAMIC FINANCE RULES THAT APPLY TO ISAs?
As mentioned above, money held in Sharia compliant ISAs cannot attract nor pay any interest. In addition, any money held in a halal ISA must be invested ethically under Islamic finance banking rules.
A good bank that is Sharia compliant will go to great lengths to ensure it remains Sharia-compliant and in line with Islamic finance rules. For example, it will steer clear of businesses and industries that are deemed to be haram and unethical (such as gambling, weapons, and alcohol).
A Sharia-compliant will ensure no interest is paid on your ISA, and that you are not charged interest. Instead, many banks will pay what is known as an 'Expected Profit Rate' This is deemed to be profit that is earned on the savings (as opposed to interest which is accrued).
WHAT TYPES OF HALAL ISAs ARE AVAILABLE?
There are a variety of ISAs that are available on the market. These include the following:
- Stocks and Shares ISAs: also known as investment ISAs, these types of ISAs invest your savings into investments including stocks, shares and commodities.
- Cash ISAs: these work like a traditional savings account.
- Lifetime ISAs are popular with people saving for retirement or their first home. They are only available to those over 18 and under 40 years old.
INVESTMENTS AND ISAs
Sharia-compliant banks will invest your money into those ventures that are deemed to be halal and Sharia compliant. Any money that is generated from this investment is then returned to investors.
For cash ISAs, the important distinction between standard ISAs and halal ISAs is that no interest is payable on halal ISAs.
Banks offering their customers halal ISAs will ensure that they have lots of information about the businesses linked to their ISA investments, and potential opportunities are screened for compliance with Sharia rules. Any bank offering Sharia-compliant products and services will have a dedicated team who is responsible for the management and screening of the product against Sharia principles and providing advice about the products.
As ISAs are seen as tax efficient this is a big draw and incentive for people to open an ISA account.
IS MONEY IN A HALAL ISA SAFE?
There are various different banks in the United Kingdom that offer their customers and investors halal ISAs. They include Al Rayan Bank, Ahil United Bank, and Gatehouse Bank. There is further information about the ISAs on the website of these banks. ISAs in the United Kingdom are regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Halal ISAs are available to Muslims and non-Muslims and offer what is considered to be a decent return on investment. Any provider offering halal ISAs and any other Islamic finance product or service in the UK will need to be registered with the regulating authorities and follow the guidance that applies to any company offering financial services. This means that customers have some peace of mind in the event of a collapse.
You should always make sure that any investment product you are interested in is offered by an institution that is regulated. Under UK law, this means that the Financial Services Compensation Scheme protects investors savings of up to £85,000 in the same way as they would be in a traditional bank.
Commodity murabaha (CM) is a popular structure for Sharia-compliant working capital financing in the UK. The diagram above illustrates the steps involved in a typical CM financing transaction, on the assumption that the SME Customer is obtaining cash flow financing and requires a £100,000 facility from using the Qardus platform. The structure has been developed based on AAOIFI Sharia Standards and the steps involved are as follows:
- A special purpose vehicle (SPV) acquires non-precious metals from Broker 1 on the London Metal Exchange (LME) for value equal to the financing amount (i.e. £100,000). The ownership of the metals transfers from Broker 1 to the SPV.
- The SPV immediately sells the metals to the SME Customer at an agreed pre-disclosed mark-up of for example £110,000 (i.e. £100,000 + £10K profit), but on deferred payment terms. The full £110,000 is therefore payable by the SME Customer over an agreed term (i.e. the financing term).
- The commodity sale is documented in the transaction request and form of offer letter and acceptance of the Commodity Murabaha Agreement. The SME Customer returns to Qardus signed copies of the transaction request and offer letter and acceptance.
- The SME Customer appoints Qardus as its agent to sell those metals, on the SME Customer's behalf, for £100,000 to Broker 2 on the LME.
- This appointment is documented in the form of an instruction letter in the Commodity Murabaha Agreement.
- Broker 2 pays Qardus (in its capacity as agent for the SME Customer) £100,000 for those metals.
- Qardus remits £100,000 (less any deductions specified in the facility agreement) in cash to the SME Customer. The SME Customer has an obligation, under the terms of the facility agreement, to pay £110,000 to the SPV in instalments (i.e. the financing term).
- Qardus as the designated security agent in the Commodity Murabaha Agreement obtains, amongst other security a debenture over any property or a personal guarantee from the SME Customer.
Whether you are a beginner or seasoned investor, when it comes to halal investment this article will explain everything you need to know. This guide is your gateway to understanding Islamic finance, investments, assets, and the value of making informed investment decisions.WHAT CONSTITUTES INVESTMENT?
Investment refers to the process of buying assets with the aim of the assets increasing in value over time. As the value of the asset increases, the investor is provided with a return that takes the form of capital gains or income payments. Investment has historically always been associated with the growth of wealth and the pursuit of capital income. However, investments can also be a means to improving lives and the lives of those in your community.
Investing becomes profitable when the asset you invest in increases in value and you are then able to sell it at a higher price. When the asset increases in value this is known as appreciation.
Investment can be complex and fraught with risk and technical difficulties. Add in the Sharia rules and the world of halal investment can seem increasingly daunting for Muslims. Sharia compliant trading and investments are those investments that do not breach the Sharia rules which are based on the idea of ethical investment and saving. Islamic finance principles relating to finances and investment are based on social justice, non-exploitation, and halal investments that lead to a mutually beneficial partnership.
WHAT IS SHARIA COMPLIANT OR HALAL INVESTING?
Halal investment refers to the investment of money in accordance with Islamic finance principles. Sharia finance law is centred on the concepts of social justice, ethics, and using finances to help build communities. For any Muslim considering halal investment strategies, the focus should be partnerships that are mutually financially beneficial.
Sharia law lays down principles and regulations Muslim investors must comply with if they want to invest in halal products. According to Sharia rules, compliance with Islamic finance principles leads to a more ethical and just society. This goes against the western notion that making money is the ultimate aim for investors. Whilst Islamic finance does not prohibit making money, it does place emphasis on ethics and justice, so that a balance is achieved between religion, family, life, intellect, and property.
Halal investments should not be dismissed by those wanting to generate income. Islamic finance is not restricting or limiting, it simply proposes ethical practices and mutual benefit. Halal investments encourage Muslims to invest responsibly and always ethically. It is still very possible to make money ethically with the right investments. Investing within Sharia compliant products actually reduces the risk for investors, and is one of the reasons that Islamic banks were able to withstand the economic collapse in 2008.
Investment And Islamic Finance Principles
Islamic finance principles provide financial principles for Muslim investors to operate within to ensure that the financing and investment activities comply with Sharia law. Whilst the main principles of Islamic finance have been around for centuries, formal Islamic banking and finance was established in the 20th Century.
As the global Muslim population continues to grow, so too does the demand for Islamic finance products and banking. The Islamic finance sector is increasing in size every year, with Islamic finance institutions overseeing over $2 trillion.
The core difference between traditional investment and Islamic investment is that Islamic finance principles dictate what investments are deemed to be halal or not. Islamic finance needs to comply strictly with Sharia law, and the following Islamic finance principles are expressly prohibited:
Paying And Charging Interest (Riba)
Interest payments, or investments that include an interest element, are strictly prohibited in Islam. Charging interest is not considered to be Sharia compliant as it is deemed to be an exploitative practice.
Risk And Uncertainty (Gharar)
Sharia rules do not allow participating in contracts where there is excessive uncertainty or risks. Investing or partaking in any short-selling or uncertain contracts are forbidden in accordance with Islamic finance principles.
Investing In Prohibited Activities
For Muslim investors, investment in any business that is involved in prohibited activities such as gambling, and selling alcohol is prohibited.
Speculation (Maisir)
Sharia law prohibits speculation or gambling. So, if any form of investing includes contracts where the ownership is dependent on events in the future that are uncertain, this is deemed to be precarious.
Benefits Of Halal Investments
As the Muslim economy continues to increase year on year, the Islamic finance industry is also growing to cater for the need for growing halal investment options and products. Some of the main benefits of halal investments for Muslims (and no-Muslims) include the following:
- Social Responsibility - taking a socially responsible approach to finances and investment not only means the investment is Sharia-compliant, but it can also lead to human rights protections, just distribution of wealth, and ethical investments that minimise environmental degradation.
- Less Risk - Islamic finance principles mean that halal investment products are less susceptible to huge market changes and fluctuations. Global crises do not impact Islamic finance as they do more traditional banking. As short term speculation is discouraged in Islam, the exposure is much lower overall.
- Growing wealth in a halal way - this is the most critical benefit for Muslim investors. Not only does halal investment mean that Muslims can engage and involve themselves with global markets, it also means that Muslims partake in disciplined investment that requires ethical due diligence.
Stocks, Bonds And Shares
Stocks, bonds and shares are the most common publicly traded investments. Stocks are essentially ownership shares of companies that have publicly traded. A stock is a share of the companies earnings and assets, owning one stock is equivalent to owning a part of the company. If the value of the company increases then the value of the stock increases at the same rate. Similarly, if the market value of the company decreases then so will the value of the stocks owned. Muslim investors who purchase stocks will want to know the modus operandi of the company so that they can be sure that any income derived from their stocks is Sharia compliant.
Bonds are ownership shares of debt, and are usually interest-bearing. This means that the bond effectively acts as a loan to the company. On the whole, bonds are not considered to be a Sharia compliant investment as they are rooted in interest payments. Sukuks are a more acceptable form of Islamic finance bond (see below).
Gold
In terms of investment, gold is considered a safe and traditional means of investment that is Sharia compliant. Gold often appreciates in value, is easy to obtain and invest in, and is not deemed to be in breach of any Islamic finance laws.
Sukuk
Sukuks are an alternative to traditional bonds as they do not bear any interest. They are often referred to as Islamic bonds, and are normally asset based. They are deemed to be conservative investments on the basis that they form part of the 'fixed income' market.
Sukuks are able to generate income for halal investors without breaching the Sharia rules.
Property
Investing in property is a great way for Muslims to invest. The only caveat is that if a mortgage is obtained it is deemed to be a halal mortgage without any element of riba.
Prohibited Industries
Any halal investment must be in accordance with the Sharia principles mentioned above, and must be done with consideration of ethics and social justice. Companies whose main business goes against the central tenets of Islam are considered universally unacceptable as investment opportunities.
There are certain industries that are deemed to be unethical or at risk of causing harm to society, and Muslims should therefore avoid opportunities in these sectors:
- Industries manufacturing, promoting, advertising, or selling alcohol
- Industries manufacturing, promoting, advertising, or selling cigarettes or drugs
- Banking products or financial transactions that include interest (riba)
- Any industries related to gambling
- Industries related to prostitution or pornography
- Industries relating to pork
Sharia law prohibits investing in industries and businesses where at least 5% of their income comes from unethical sources (this is known as the 5% rule). Before investing in any business, Muslims should check out the financial statements and positioning of the company and do some research on their sources of income and profits and where they are derived from.
Halal Investment - What To Look For
When undertaking due diligence prior to investing, you should consider the following 3 types of investing opportunities:
1. Companies with halal practices - these are known as clean companies (from a halal investment perspective) and are companies that operate in a completely halal way. These companies operate within the Sharia finance rules, and have a clear halal audit trail.
2. Companies with haram practices - these types of companies operate within prohibited industries such as gambling and alcohol.
3. Mixed companies - these companies may have halal practices but these are mixed with haram practices or activities.
For halal investors, option 1 is always the best option as there is no overlap of the halal-haram considerations. Companies that have a cross-over between halal and haram should be avoided.
As one of the fastest growing finance sectors, Islamic finance has opened up many opportunities for halal investors. In the UK alone, there are many banks that offer specialist investing products, loans, and savings accounts.
Conclusion
Islamic finance promotes the concepts of ethical financial management and investment and reciprocal profits. The use of interest, risky investments, and unethical industry investment is discouraged. Halal investing is a growing financial niche, and it is available for Muslims and non-Muslims alike. Investing in products that are Sharia compliant is not difficult or impossible, it just requires some information gathering and due diligence.
Prominent private equity institutions like Gobi Partners have realised the growing demand for halal financial products. Over the last decade, more and more financial institutions and foreign exchange markets have taken steps to place themselves in the Islamic finance and private equity market. High net worth individuals in emerging markets such as Africa and the Middle East are entering the private equity investment market rapidly and this has led to an increase in demand for Sharia compliant investment opportunities. Islamic finance is no longer considered to be a niche and exotic sector within the banking industry.
Of course, the most important factor behind the growth of the Islamic finance industry is that Muslims make up almost a quarter of the world's population. The Muslim investor base is large and it is growing. This growth has not been lost on wealth managers and banks who are keen to tap into the wealth and investment funds in the hands of wealthy Muslims. Coupled with the economic expansion of many Muslim countries, it is likely that halal investment products will become more accessible within the next 10 years.
As the Islamic finance sector continues to grow annually, a faith-based approach to investing and trading is becoming more mainstream. However, the application of Islamic finance to investment products needs to be undertaken and can be nuanced, so always make sure to check the financial information of any company you are considering investing in.
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